How Celtics’ vexing defense paved way for red-hot Heat’s Game 2 upset

Herro really did play one of the best games of his career at TD Garden. He finished with 24 points, five rebounds and a career-high 14 assists, with all but one of his seven field goals coming from three-point range.

But it’s not like Herro was splashing long balls in basic pick-and-roll action, doing his best Stephen Curry or Damian Lillard impression by launching off-dribble triples when a screen afforded him just enough breathing room to let fly. Boston treated him like those historic pull-up marksmen regardless for the majority of Wednesday’s game.

Caleb Martin indeed turned back the clock to the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals, Erik Spoelstra calling him the “ultimate X-factor” and a “computer” on the postgame podium. His 21-point effort wasn’t the result of star-level shot-making like this time last year or even the prudent dirty work that’s made him a Heat culture favorite over the past few seasons, though.

These are close to warm-up jumpers for Martin—each the result of Boston being afraid to let Herro pull-up for three around a pick or turn the corner with a head of steam toward a big in drop coverage.

Take special note of Jaylen Brown and White in the clips above. They’re initially stationed one pass away from the primary action on Martin, but jump to Herro as he uses picks from Adebayo with Horford and Porzingis, respectively, guarding the screener.

Again, Herro isn’t Curry or Lillard as a shooter off the bounce and certainly not Ja Morant or Anthony Edwards attacking a big in space downhill. He’s definitely not Playoff Jimmy Butler, either.

Why do the Celtics feel compelled to rush the nearest wing defender toward him—effectively guaranteeing Martin is available as an early, open release valve—rather than trailing Herro in traditional drop coverage, asking Horford and Porzingis to meet him close to the level of the screen or, gasp, even switching onto him outright?

The chess pieces are arranged differently on the play below, but the strategy is the same. Boston would rather task Sam Hauser—the initial primary defender— with a 50-foot close-out to Martin in the weak corner than risk Herro exploiting a ball-screen advantage.

Boston willingly injects randomness as heavy favorite

Martin wasn’t the only Miami role player in Game 2 whose impact was elevated by the Celtics overreacting to Herro at the point of attack. Haywood Highsmith only had nine points after a scoreless playoff opener, but all of them came from beyond the arc and with a helping hand from Herro. The last of Highsmith’s makes was a perfect example of Boston selling out to stop Herro, providing the Heat’s supporting cast yet another winning numbers game.

Ensuring Porzingis stays out of the primary action is one thing. Why would the Celtics react to a double screen for Herro by trapping with Tatum and Jrue Holiday instead of just switching on the ball—especially given time and score of the mid fourth quarter, down two possessions?

Highsmith, by the way, hit an above average 36.8% of his catch-and-shoot threes from the left wing this season, per NBA.com/stats. That number bumps up to 40.3% from around the arc at large, 5.5 points better than Martin’s substandard mark on spot-up triples.

No one knows better than Boston what Martin is capable of on the playoff stage, though. Martin was 4-of-5 on triples when he brought the ball up under pressure in crunch-time before crossing halfcourt and passing to Herro on the right wing. Is there any doubt Miami knew exactly what would come next?

As Herro gets into another pick-and-roll with Adebayo, White abandons his assignment to help Holiday keep Porzingis out of the play while Martin drifts to the other side of the floor. Herro gets off the ball a beat earlier than normal, firing a lefty bullet to an awaiting Martin. You can see Brown pointing toward Martin even before Herro makes the pass, but he’s still concerned with Jaime Jaquez Jr. in the corner, unable to muster a quality close-out while playing two on the weak side.

Splash.

Down nine with three minutes left after Martin’s three, the Celtics never got closer than eight before the final buzzer sounded.

The good news for Boston is that Butler, in addition to Rozier, won’t re-take the floor before this suddenly competitive series comes to a close. The Celtics are still overwhelming favorites to beat Miami despite Wednesday’s shocking outcome at TD Garden.

Even more encouraging for Boston? Jrue Holiday’s revealing take on how his team will respond to the Heat’s red-hot shooting.

“I think we stay solid. I think we stay solid. Stick to the gameplan, whatever the gameplan is for next game,” he said. “We know that they’re gonna be at home so they’ll have a little more juice, but I don’t think we react at all. I think we stay as even-keeled as possible.”

“Whatever the gameplan is” certainly doesn’t suggest the Celtics will take this same defensive approach with them to South Beach for Saturday’s Game 3. After all, why would the most talented team in basketball willingly inject the random whims of outlier three-point shooting into a playoff game against an opponent missing its best player?